What is Peak Oil and what are the implications for the main transport Essay - 2

What is Peak Oil and what are the implications for the main transport modes (cars; trucks; trains; ships; aircraft) - Essay Example Geologist, M. King Hubbert had first developed the concept of â€Å"Peak oil† while he was working for Shell Ltd., an oil company. The main hypothesis of Hubbert is that production of petroleum products can only increase up to a certain point, the maximum production. After that, production will surely decline. Hubert had originally predicted in 1956 that oil production of the United States will begin to fall from the period of 70s (Nà ¤f, 2010). Though initially rejected, validity of this hypothesis had begun to gain momentum when this possibility showed signs of reality. Since then, various analysts had used the background of Hubbert to predict the peak year for world oil decline. The expected time frame for the decline is 2004 to 2008 (National Research Council, 2006). The following graph shows the initial hypothesis of Hubbert. According to current estimates, the peak year of production depends heavily on the future demand. The exact time frame has not been commonly agreed upon, but estimates claim that it is likely to happen before 2020 (Mobbs, 2005). The current estimates have suggested that assuming the world economy to grow at 3-3.5% per annum, the consumption of oil in developing countries will rise from 84 bbl/day in 2005 to 120 bbl/day in 2025. Additionally, assuming depletion of oil at 3-3.5% per annum, the current demand can only be met if 98 bbl/day is produced from sources other than the existing ones, which are almost impossible (Graefe, 2011). The peak oil debate has continued for too long and no concrete results have been reached. The ones for the notion debate that the production will always lag behind discovery and the decline is terminal (Kaufmann, n.d.). Over the last few decades, newer sites that had been discovered had shown that reserves in them are not too high and cannot be sustained for a long-term. The Kuwait oil company has also decided on using multi-cyclic models to overcome